Download the App Image

3 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football

Sunday, Sept. 18

8:20 p.m. ET

NBC

Bears Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+10

-110

41.5

-110o / -110u

+375
Packers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-10

-110

41.5

-110o / -110u

-500
pick
Packers +10
Best Books
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: We’ve backed a ton of underdogs in Week 2, but it’s time to go chalk with our final bet of the week. And what’s chalkier than Aaron Rodgers at home? Just take a look at any number of trends in our favor:

  • Rodgers at home: 65-34-6 ATS (66%)
  • Rodgers as a home favorite: 60-33-3 ATS (65%)
  • Rodgers at home in primetime: 22-10-1 ATS (69%)
  • Rodgers ace favorite division: 42-24 ATS (64%)
  • Rodgers after a loss: 39-21-1 ATS (64%)
  • Rodgers vs. the Bears: 20-7 ATS (74%)

Pick a trend, any trend, and it’ll tell you overwhelmingly to back Rodgers and the Packers in a home get-right spot against the Bears.

Chicago won last Sunday but had 73 yards in 40 minutes before a handful of monsoon plays broke the Bears’ way. As for the Packers, they had a dropped 75-yard TD by Christian Watson on their first play from scrimmage and also got stuffed on fourth and goal; they did just fine against a Vikings team that looks pretty good.

Besides, it’s the Packers and the Bears and we’ve seen this movie a thousand times. Chicago is Rodgers’ most profitable opponent ATS, and I ranked Green Bay top-three in both offense and defense coming into the season while Chicago was bottom-two in both — this is a mismatch in every direction.

Need a couple more trends to seal the deal? Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 — like the Packers — are 40-25-2 ATS (62%) the following game over the past decade.

We’re getting free value after a Packers loss, and Green Bay has been pretty good after a defeat. Matt LaFleur is a perfect 9-0 straight-up and ATS after a loss in his career, covering by 10.1 points per game.

RELAX, Packers fans, you’ll be fine. It’s only the Bears.


» Return to the table of contents «


pick
Bears Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Best Books
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Charlie DiSturco: Cole Kmet’s Week 1 bagel should be completely disregarded. It was a monsoon in Chicago and passing was minimal. Even Darnell Mooney finished with just one reception and 8 yards.

The positive is that Kmet played the second-most snaps of all receiving options for Justin Fields and he should be a big red-zone threat with Jimmy Graham no longer in the picture. In what is expected to be a negative game script — the Bears are double-digit underdogs — Kmet should run plenty of routes.

Kmet finished the 2021 season strong, going over his receiving yards prop of 27.5 in five of his last seven games. He finished just three yards shy in one of those games, too, which was a Bears blowout win over the Giants.

The Packers’ defense should generate a ton of pressure on Fields, and Kmet can be the safety valve for the second-year quarterback. With Mooney likely drawing Jaire Alexander, expect Kmet to get plenty of looks.

This number should be closer to 30 yards and I would expect similar numbers to how he finished last season, with upwards of five-plus targets. Back Kmet to get the job done in Green Bay and also consider his anytime touchdown prop of +500.


» Return to the table of contents «


pick
Under 41.5
Best Books
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Rodgers is 20-7 (74%) against the Bears, 65-34-3 (66%) ATS at Lambeau Field and 39-21-1 (65%) coming off a loss. But it’s tough to give those trends any weight considering his current supporting cast.

On top of that, betting on large favorites is not a profitable endeavor.

According to our Action Labs data, favorites by more than one score (8.5 or more) are 443-479-16 (48.0%) ATS since 2005, including 67-77-2 (46.5%) ATS in primetime.

At a spread of -10, we’re not getting any type of discount for the Packers’ diminished offensive output in Week 1. In fact, we’d be paying a premium because the Packers are in what looks like a bounce-back spot (I have this projected at Packers -8, and our PRO Models have it Packers -7.7).

Playing the under in this type of spot has historically been far more profitable.

Week 2 divisional unders that opened opened 43 or higher (Packers-Bears opened at 45.5) are 39-22 (64%) since since 2005, including 25-10 (71%) when the total drops.

Primetime unders also down more than a point from open are 66-39 (63%) since 2015, falling short of the closing line by an average of 2.8 points per game.

FanDuel Quickslip: Under 41.5 | Bet to 41


» Return to the table of contents «


Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.